Countries go through the business or economic cycle and the stage of the cycle at which a country has a direct impact both on industry and individual companies. It affects investment decisions, employment, demand and the profitability of companies. While some industries such as shipping or consumer durable goods are greatly affected by the business cycle, others such as the food or health industry are not affected to the same extent. This is because in regard to certain products consumers can postpone their purchase decisions, whereas in certain others they cannot. The four stages of an economic cycle are: Depression: At the time of depression, demand is low and falling. Inflation is high and so are interest rates. Companies, crippled by high borrowing and falling sales, are forced to curtail production, close down plants built at times of higher demand, and let workers go. Recovery: During this phase, the economy Continue reading
Investment Management
Organization of Mutual Fund
Mutual fund is a trust that pools the savings of a number of investors who share a common financial goal. This pool of money is invested in accordance with a stated objective. The joint ownership of the fund is thus “Mutual”, i.e. the fund belongs to all investors. The money thus collected is then invested in capital market instruments such as shares, debentures and other securities. The income earned through these investments and the capital appreciations realized are shared by its unit holders in proportion the number of units owned by them. Thus a Mutual Fund is the most suitable investment for the common man as it offers an opportunity to invest in a diversified, professionally managed basket of securities at a relatively low cost. A Mutual Fund is an investment tool that allows small investors access to a well-diversified portfolio of equities, bonds and other securities. Each shareholder participates Continue reading
Stock Market Index
The general movement of the stock market is usually measured by averages or indices consisting of groups of securities that are supposed to represent the entire stock market or its particular segments. Thus, Security Market Indices (or) Security Market Indicators provide a summary measure of the behavior of security prices and the stock market. The principal stock market indices used in India are the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index (BSE Sensex) and the S&P CNX Nifty known as the NSE Nifty (National Stock Exchange Fifty). Purpose of an Index The security market indices are indicators of different things and are useful for different purposes. The following are the important uses of a stock market index: Security market indices are the basic tools to help and analyze the movements of prices of various stocks listed on stock exchanges and are useful indicators of a country’s economic health. The return on the Continue reading
Offshore Derivatives Instruments – Participatory Notes
Offshore derivatives instruments (ODIs) are investment vehicles used by overseas investors not registered with the SEBI for an exposure in Indian equities or equity derivatives. They may not be registered with SEBI, either because they do not want to, or due to regulatory constraints for which they are not allowed to. It is a registered FII that makes purchases on behalf of these investors and the FII s affiliate issues those ODIs. ODIs include equity-linked notes, capped return notes, participating return notes, etc. Participatory notes are a preferred route for High Net worth Individuals (HNIs) and hedge funds from abroad to make investment in Indian capital market. P-Notes, mostly used by overseas HNIs, hedge funds and other foreign institutions, allow such investors to invest in Indian markets through registered Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Participatory Notes (P-Notes) is one of the categories of ODIs. The underlying asset class could be stocks, Continue reading
Foreign Exchange Forecasting in Practice
Most of the approaches to foreign exchange rate determination tell only part of the story–like the several blindfolded men touching different parts of the elephant’s body–and other, more comprehensive explanations cannot, in practice, be used for precise forecasting. We do not yet have a way of bringing together all of the factors that help determine the exchange rate in a single comprehensive approach that will provide reliable short- to medium-term predictions. The exchange rate is a pervasive and complex mechanism, influencing and being influenced by many different forces, with the effects and the relative importance of the different influences continuously changing as conditions change. To the extent that trade flows are a force in the market, competitiveness is obviously important to the exchange rate, and the many factors affecting competitiveness must be considered. To the extent that the money market is a factor, the focus should be on short-term interest Continue reading
Commodity Derivatives
In the last 25 years, derivatives have become increasingly important in the world of trading. Futures and Options are now traded actively on many exchanges. A derivative can be defined as a financial instrument whose value depends upon (or derives from) the value of other basic underlying variables. Very often, the variables underlying derivatives are the prices of traded assets. For example, a commodity option is a derivative whose value is dependent on the price of a stock. The underlying variable can be anything. Active trading is happening in credit derivatives, electricity derivatives, weather derivatives, insurance derivatives etc. many new types of interest rate, foreign exchange and equity derivative products have been created. A commodity derivatives market (or exchange) is, in simple terms, nothing more or less than a public market place where commodities are contracted for purchase or sale at an agreed price for delivery at a specified date. Continue reading