In real life situations one rarely comes across inventory lead times and usage rates that are known with certainty. When usage rate and/or lead time vary, then the reorder level should naturally be at a level high enough to cater to the production needs during the procurement period and also to provide some measures of safety for at least partially neutralizing the degree of uncertainty. The question will naturally arise as to the magnitude of safety stock. There is no specific answer to this question. However, it depends, inter alia, upon the degree of uncertainty surrounding the usage rate and lead time. It is possible to a certain extent to quantify the values that usage rate and lead time can take along with the corresponding chances of occurrence, known as probabilities. These probabilities can be ascertained based on previous experiences and/or the judgemental ability of astute executives. Based on the Continue reading
Operations Management
Sales Forecasting – Meaning and Methods
Financial forecasting is a significant part of financial planning process. The financial forecasting begins with sales forecasting. Sales forecast is a forecast of firm’s future sales both in terms of volume and value. The sales forecast always begins with analyzing the historical trends in sales over the past periods. It also takes to consideration the future economic prosperity if given line of business. To determine the forecasted sales growth, the firm must rely on competitive market conditions, customers tastes and preferences, change in technology and future possibilities of market expansion. Nowadays, several statistical methods like regression analysis, time series analysis, econometric models are used to consider all these factors in providing sales forecasts. Some factors that should be considered while developing sales forecast are as follows: Provide a projection of divisional sales based on historical growth and combine the divisional sales forecasts to provide a approximate corporate sales forecast. Forecast Continue reading