Approaches to Demand Forecasting in Managerial Economics

All firms forecast demand, but it would be difficult to find any two firms that forecast demand in exactly the same way. Over the last few decades, many different forecasting techniques have been developed in a number of different application areas, including engineering and economics. Many such procedures have been applied to the practical problem of forecasting demand in a business  system, with varying degrees of success. Most commercial software packages that support demand forecasting in a business  system include dozens of different forecasting algorithms that the analyst can use to generate alternative demand forecasts. While scores of different forecasting techniques exist, almost any forecasting procedure can be broadly classified into one of the following four basic categories based on the fundamental approach towards the forecasting problem that is employed by the technique. Judgmental Approaches. The essence of the judgmental approach is to address the forecasting issue by assuming that Continue reading

Demand Forecasting in Managerial Economics

One of the crucial aspects in which managerial economics differs from pure economic theory lies in the treatment of risk and uncertainty. Traditional economic theory assumes a risk-free world of certainty; but the real world business is full of all sorts of risk and uncertainty. A manager cannot, therefore, afford to ignore risk and uncertainty. The element of risk is associated with future which is indefinite and uncertain. To cope with future risk and uncertainty, the manager needs to predict the future event. The likely future event has to be given form and content in terms of projected course of variables, i.e. forecasting. Thus, business forecasting is an essential ingredient of corporate planning. Such forecasting enables the manager to minimize the element of risk and uncertainty. Demand forecasting is a specific type of business forecasting. Concepts of Demand Forecasting The manager can conceptualize the future in definite terms. If he Continue reading

Use of Exchange Controls to Eliminate a Nation’s Balance of Payments (BoP) Deficit

The exchange control refers to a set of restrictions imposed on the international transactions and payments, by the government or the exchange control authority. Exchange control may be partial, confined to only few kinds of transactions or payments, or total covering all kinds of international transactions depending on the requirement of the country. The main features of a full-fledged exchange control system are as follows: The government acquires, through the legislative measures, a complete domination over the foreign exchange transactions. The government  monopolizes  the purchase and sale of foreign  exchange. Law eliminates the sale and purchase of foreign exchange by the  resident individuals. Even holding foreign exchange without informing the exchange control authority’s declared illegal. All payments to the foreigners and receipts from them are routed  through the exchange control authority or the  authorized  agents. Foreign exchange payments arc restricted, generally, to the import  of essential goods and service such Continue reading

Perfect Competition – Perfectly Competitive Market

Perfect competition is a market situation where large number of buyers and sellers operate freely and commodity sells at a uniform price. In such a situation no seller or buyer has any influence on the market price. In a perfectly competitive market, a firm is the price taker and industry is the price maker. Main Features of Perfect Competition The main features of perfect competition are as follows: There are a large number of buyers and sellers. Each seller must be small and the quantity supplied by any seller must be so insignificant that no increase or decrease in his output can appreciably affect the total supply and the market price. So also, each buyer must be small and the quantity bought by any of the buyers should be so insignificant that no increase or decrease in his purchases can · appreciably affect the total demand and the price. As Continue reading

Arguments in Favor of Firms Profit Maximization Objective

Profit  maximization  is the most important assumption, which helps the economists to introduce the price and production theories. The traditional economic theory assumes that the profit  maximization  is the only objective of business firms. According to this theory, profits must be earned by business to provide for its own survival, coverage of risks, growth and expansion. It is a necessary motivating force and it is in terms of profits that the efficiency of a business is measured. It forms the basis of conventional price theory. Profit  maximization  is regarded as the most reasonable and analytically the most productive business objective. The profit  maximization  assumption in this theory helps in predicting the  behavior  of business firms and also the  behavior  of price and out pet under different market conditions. No alternative hypothesis or assumption explains and predicts the  behavior  of firms better than the profit  maximization  assumption. The traditional theory supports Continue reading

Producer’s Equilibrium

Given the Isoproduct map, the producer would like to ride on the highest possible Isoquant because any point on it would yield maximum possible output. But the producer’s desires are limited by his budgetary constraints. Before he selects a certain combination of inputs he has to take into consideration the size of his investment outlay and the prices of the factors of production. The Isocost Line Let us assume that the investment fund is given and the prices of factors X and Y are also known. On the basis of these assumptions let us suppose that the firm were to spend the entire amount on employing units of only input X. Then it could hireOB units of factor X. On the other hand if the producer wants to allocate his entire investment outlay in employing factor Y then he could hire OA units of Y. We have now obtained the Continue reading