Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool
Formal scenario planning emerged during the Second World War, when it was used as a part of military strategy as countries prepared themselves for different contingencies. Since then, the use of scenario planning has become increasingly popular. Scenarios are tools for ordering one’s perception about alternative future environment in which today’s decision might be framed. In practice, scenarios resemble a set of stories, written or spoken, built around carefully constructed plots. These stories can express multiple perspectives on complex events, scenarios give meaning to these events. Scenarios are powerful planning tools precisely because the future is unpredictable. Unlike traditional forecasting or market research, scenarios present alternative images instead of extrapolating current trends from the present. Scenarios also embrace qualitative perspectives and the potential for sharp discontinuities that econometric models exclude. Consequently, creating scenarios requires decision-makers to question their broadest assumptions about the way the world works so that they can Continue reading