Extrapolative Forecasting – Explained with Definition and Methods
In extrapolative forecasting we predict the future by extrapolating a historical trend. What has happened in the past determines what is forecast for the future [with other forecasting methods, such as exploratory forecasting, this need not be so. For example, with exploratory forecasting we can explore revolutionary, as well as evolutionary, scenarios]. In some circumstances it is right to use extrapolative forecasting. In other cases different approaches might be more suitable. It is not an appropriate approach to use in a new product/ new business situation, or in situations where circumstances have radically changed, and the past is no guide to the future. Any time series [a series of numbers recording past events] will have been produced by the interaction of a number of variables. For example, a time series of a company’s past profits will have been produced by a complex process, which involves an interaction between multiple revenue Continue reading