Forecasting is a method or a technique for estimating future aspects of a business or the operation. It is a method for translating past data or experience into estimates of the future. It is a tool, which helps management in its attempts to cope with the uncertainty of the future. Forecasts are important for short-term and long-term decisions. Businesses may use forecast in several areas: technological forecast, economic forecast, demand forecast. There two broad categories of forecasting techniques: quantitative methods (objective approach) and qualitative methods (subjective approach). Quantitative forecasting methods are based on analysis of historical data and assume that past patterns in data can be used to forecast future data points. Qualitative forecasting techniques employ the judgment of experts in specified field to generate forecasts. They are based on educated guesses or opinions of experts in that area. There are two types of quantitative methods: Times-series method and explanatory Continue reading
Economics Concepts
Economic Dualism
Economic dualism refers to the existence of a developed sector side by side with an under developed or undeveloped sector. We will come across the co-existence of sophistication and primitive characteristics in every walk of life. For example, in the urban areas, one will find the use of modem technology in the production field as well as households, while in the rural areas, the age old, antiquated techniques will be used in the production as well as in households. This dualism retards economic growth. That is, the subsistence sector in the rural areas will pull down whatever little economic progress is achieved with the developed and modem sector. Further in the urban areas, one can come across the existence of dualism, in every activity. For instance there will be modern, technologically sophisticated industries existing side by side with industries with labor intensive and poor technology. There will be high wage Continue reading
Deflation – Meaning, Effects and Modes of Control
When prices are abnormally high, termed as inflation, it is indeed desirable to have a fall in prices. Such a fall in the price level is good for the community, as it will not lead to a fall in the level of production or employment. The process designed to reverse the inflationary trend in prices, without creating unemployment, is generally known as disinflation. But if prices fall from the level of full employment, then income and employment will be adversely affected and this situation is termed as deflation. Effects of Deflation The following are the adverse effects of deflation: On production: Deflation has an adverse effect on the level of production, business activity and employment. During deflation, prices fall due contracting demand for goods and services. Fall in price results in losses and sometimes forcing many firms to go into liquidation. In the face of declining demand for goods, firms Continue reading
Balance of Payments (BoP)
The balance of payment is defined as a systematic record of all economic transactions between the residents of a country and residents of foreign countries during a certain period of time. Although the above definition of balance of payments is quite revealing certain terms used in the definition may require some clarification. The term’s systematic record does not refer to any particular system. However, the system generally adopted is double entry book-keeping system. Economic transactions include all such transactions that involve the transfer of title or ownership. While some transactions involve physical transfer of goods, services, assets and money along with the transfer of title while other transactions do not involve transfer of title. For example, suppose that a subsidiary company of a foreign undertaking is operating in India and making profit. This company may pay all its profits as dividend to the shareholders abroad, or it may, alternatively reinvest Continue reading
The Economists View of Environmental Pollution
Why do people use resources like the environment? This is because, pollution is a byproduct of activities that add to their welfare. These activities bring economic gain to producers and utility gain to consumers. We do not pollute the planet just for fun; we do it as part of activities that improve our welfare. The economists view of environmental pollution is that pollution creates another trade-off of cost and benefit that must be weighed on a case by case basis. Many of our streams and lakes have historically served as depositories of chemical waste generated by industrial plants and mines. Some are cleaner now, but many still suffer damage form earlier discharges of chemicals, like PCBs whose “half-lives” are measured in hundreds of years. Many pesticides, fertilizers, and detergents used by farms and homes find their way into our lakes and waterways, where they have damaged commercial and recreational fishing. Continue reading
Steps in Demand Forecasting
Demand or sales forecasting is a scientific exercise. It has to go through a number of steps. At each step, you have to make critical considerations. Such considerations are categorically listed below: 1) Nature of forecast: To begin with, you should be clear about the uses of forecast data- how it is related to forward planning and corporate planning by the firm. Depending upon its use, you have to choose the type of forecasts: short-run or long-run, active or passive, conditional or non-conditional etc. 2) Nature of product: The next important consideration is the nature of product for which you are attempting a demand forecast. You have to examine carefully whether the product is consumer goods or producer goods, perishable or durable, final or intermediate demand, new demand or replacement demand type etc. A couple of examples may illustrate the importance of this factor. The demand for intermediate goods like Continue reading