In the modern era, many countries claim to be running a floating exchange rate. However, many of these countries actively limit fluctuation in the external value of their national monies. This behaviour has been dubbed “fear of floating”, several reasons exist for it. Firstly, there is the ‘original sin’ problem. Many emerging economies are unable to borrow overseas in their domestic currency. This leads to an accumulation of foreign debt liabilities that are unhedged. If there is a sharp depreciation in these nations’ exchange rate, the domestic currency value of their external debt will be altered and thus their economies net worth will also change. Secondly, policymakers in emerging markets suffer from a chronic lack of credibility. The economies may therefore experience large and frequent shocks to exchange rate expectations or to interest rate risk premiums. To gain confidence and credibility, the authorities who set the interest rate will therefore Continue reading
Forex Trading
Foreign Exchange Control in India
Any transaction in foreign Exchange is governed by Foreign Exchange Management ACT 1999. The FERA had its origin by defense of India rules (DIR) 1935. This control was exercised in order to ensure the foreign exchange particularly due to severe constraints on exchange reserve due to Second World War. Later on 23 March 1947 this rule became in the State Book as Foreign Exchange Regulation Act 1947. Later this act modified with certain amendments in 1973 and become effective from 01.01.1974. Further relaxation of this affect was effected since 1994. The same was repealed from 1st June, 2000 and all foreign exchange transactions from this date will be governed by the provisions of the Foreign Exchange Management Act 1999. As per the foreign exchange Management Act 1999 the Reserve Bank of India principally controls the movement of the Foreign Exchange of the country. As per sec 11 (1) of FEMA, Continue reading
Use of Forex Futures
Forex futures are futures markets where the underlying commodity is a foreign currency. Foreign currency futures are essentially the same as all other futures markets (index and commodity futures markets), and are traded in exactly the same way. Forex futures markets trade futures contracts that reflect the exchange rates of two currencies. For example, the most popular currency futures market is the EUR futures market, which is based upon the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate. Hedging with Forex Futures Tenders make use of the market for forex futures/foreign currency futures in order to hedge their foreign exchange risk. For instance suppose a US importer importing goods from India for 1 million Rupees and he needs this amount for making payment to the exporter. He will purchase Rupee at a future settlement date. By holding a futures contact, the importer does not have to worry about any change in Continue reading
Foreign Exchange Department of Banks
The Foreign Exchange department, which is also being called as the International Banking Division, is one of the important departments of the banks operating in international market. In India also all scheduled commercial banks, both in the nationalized or non-nationalized sectors, do have Foreign Exchange departments, both at their principal offices as well as offices, in metropolitan centers. This department functions independently under the overall change of some senior executive or a senior officer well-versed in foreign exchange operations as well as in the rules and regulations in force from time to time pertaining to foreign exchange transactions advised by various government agencies. The principal function of a Foreign exchange department is to handle foreign inward remittances as well as outward remittances; buying and selling of foreign currencies, handling and forwarding of import and export documents and giving the consultancy services to the exporters and importers. Besides this, the department Continue reading
Foreign Exchange Forecasting in Practice
Most of the approaches to foreign exchange rate determination tell only part of the story–like the several blindfolded men touching different parts of the elephant’s body–and other, more comprehensive explanations cannot, in practice, be used for precise forecasting. We do not yet have a way of bringing together all of the factors that help determine the exchange rate in a single comprehensive approach that will provide reliable short- to medium-term predictions. The exchange rate is a pervasive and complex mechanism, influencing and being influenced by many different forces, with the effects and the relative importance of the different influences continuously changing as conditions change. To the extent that trade flows are a force in the market, competitiveness is obviously important to the exchange rate, and the many factors affecting competitiveness must be considered. To the extent that the money market is a factor, the focus should be on short-term interest Continue reading
Major Risks in Foreign Exchange Dealings
Forex Risk Management Foreign Exchange risks also known as exposures can be termed as an agreed, projected or contingent cash flow whose scale is not certain at the moment. The magnitude depends on the value of the changes in the foreign exchange rates which in turn depends on various variables such as the interest rate parity, purchasing power parity, speculations and government policies on exchange rates. The following are the major risks in foreign exchange dealings; Open Position Risk Cash Balance Risk Maturity Mismatches Risk Credit Risk Country Risk Overtrading Risk Fraud Risk, and Operational Risks 1. Open Position Risk The open position risk or the position risk refers to the risk of change in exchange rates affecting the overbought or oversold position in foreign currency held by a bank. Hence, this can also be called the rate risk. The risk can be avoided by keeping the position in foreign Continue reading